This severity index is Median age, Smokers (% adults) and Deaths per days that a country has had deaths. I ranked the top 12 countries in deaths (S. Korea and up) and then assigned them a rank based on the three risk factors. The index combines the ranks.
I hold that deaths is a better measure of virus activity because confirmed cases is dependent on resources for testing, which is highly variable. I am glad that the US is testing widely enough to have the most number of cases. This is a good thing, though it’s still pretty erratic. Even as a nurse working in a hospital, I can’t get tested without a known contact with a confirmed case (and symptoms) because tests are still being somewhat rationed.
What I think Italy’s death total (half the world total) is that their healthcare system capacity has been overwhelmed for a few weeks now. They did not succeed in flattening the curve.
I started this analysis two days ago, and UK’s deaths were only 578 at that time. I had predicted the UK would explode when it became the only air access to the US. This is a development of my theory that the most severe outbreaks are going to track fentanyl traffic to the US. (China was uncooperative with the US efforts to crack down on fentanyl). Iran and Italy’s outbreaks could be linked to overland traffic, and particularly Northern Italy was a way to enter the rest of Europe without a passport after transfer by shipping. Spain’s rising figures could also reflect this.
My excel analysis with sources for smoker % and median age: Severity Index 3-28