Nate Silver isn’t sure a COVID red state wave is a thing, and perhaps it’s secondary to rurality and latitude. I only got a B in statistics, but I know confidence interval deals in the likelihood a result could happen by chance.
Redness is a 0-3 score of whether the governor, 2016 election, and 2020 polling are GOP. I dug the weekly new cases out of 91-divoc on my phone. So. Sorry I didn’t do all 50 states. These are the figures under “range”.
I think the chance that 9 of 10 of the fastest growing states are red, and 7 of the 10 slowest growing states are blue is lowish. (There are 21 blue states and 29 red states.) I don’t know how to calculate a proper CI for this. But there it is.